The table below shows the annual gross domestic product per capita of the Republic of Belarus, in other words - per capita GDP.
In order to better understand the meaning and significance of this widespread macroeconomic indicator, it would be appropriate to recall what the gross domestic product of the state is in general and in relation to the number of inhabitants.
|
date |
Meaning |
Change, % |
|---|---|---|
| 5 092 | -11,43% | |
| 5 749 | -28,48% | |
| 8 038 | 4,07% | |
| 7 724 | 14,93% | |
| 6 720 | 6,66% | |
| 6 300 | 8,39% | |
| 5 813 | 12,38% | |
| 5 172 | -18,76% | |
| 6 367 | 34,70% | |
| 4 727 | 23,17% | |
| 3 837 | 23,18% |
Gross domestic product (GDP)- is the total value of all goods and services produced in the territory of a particular state in a year. Gross domestic product per capita, respectively, is the total wealth produced divided by the population of the country.
It is usually calculated in . Sometimes, for greater objectivity of the analysis, the calculation is carried out not at face value, but on the basis of purchasing power parity (PPP). The methodology for calculating PPP deserves separate consideration, here we only note that in this way they seek to “equalize” the value of different currencies so that the same set of goods and services has the same value in different states.
Per capita GDP is often used as an indicator of the general state of the economy. However, when comparing this indicator in different states, the result sometimes looks very biased. In order to achieve clarity in understanding the issue, it is imperative to clarify what per capita GDP is not.
It is not the sum of all personal incomes of the population. If only because, in addition to final consumption, GDP also includes capital accumulation and government spending. A clear example of the discrepancy between per capita GDP and personal well-being was demonstrated by the socialist system, where most of the national wealth was in state ownership. With such a distribution of wealth, small personal incomes and super-expensive state institutions are commonplace. In a market system, it is also not difficult to imagine a state consisting of a small number of super-rich and a poor majority. However, GDP per capita in such a country may turn out to be higher than in another country that has neither extremely rich nor prohibitively poor, with a large and prosperous middle class.
Somewhat more objective is the relationship between per capita GDP and labor productivity in the country. However, even here, the uneven distribution of natural resources introduces noticeable distortions into the overall picture. So the average citizen of the Arabian oil monarchies personally produces noticeably less than the Chinese, but is incomparably richer than him in terms of GDP per capita.
The habit of measuring the gross domestic product in US dollars also does not add objectivity to the indicator due to exchange rate fluctuations, and most importantly, the difference in prices in countries far from each other in terms of living standards. To correct this deficiency, GDP is sometimes calculated in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP). Without delving into the calculation methodology, it can be seen that GDP calculated at PPP shows significantly higher values in countries with a low cost of living. Thus, the nominal GDP of Belarus in 2016 amounted to 5,092 US dollars (according to the IMF), and according to the PPP method - 17,497 dollars.
By the end of 2017, Belarus remained in 81st position in the ranking of countries by GDP (as it was a year ago).
In the National Statistical Committee, in January-September 2018, the GDP of Belarus grew by 3.7% compared to the same period last year.
|
date |
Meaning |
Change, % |
|---|---|---|
| 17 497 | -1,23% | |
| 17 715 | -3,17% | |
| 18 294 | 3,50% | |
| 17 676 | 2,67% | |
| 17 217 | 3,78% | |
| 16 589 | 7,94% | |
| 15 369 | 9,22% | |
| 14 072 | 1,20% | |
| 13 905 | 12,89% | |
| 12 317 | 12,17% | |
| 10 981 | 14,15% |
But if a comparison of the level and quality of life of different states in terms of per capita GDP sometimes turns out to be unconvincing, then changes in this indicator in one state over a number of years, as a rule, coincide with the main trends in economic development. Based on this, the gross domestic product per capita is most often considered in a dynamic relationship with other economic processes.
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RUB 121,568.0 million
Recorded in 2018
Previous value: 105,748.2 million rubles in 2017
GDP - gross domestic product. It is a summary of all goods and services produced. This is a macroeconomic indicator characterized by the total value, the market value of the total volume of goods and services produced in a given society in one year. The term was introduced in 1934 by Simon Kuznets.
GDP can be measured in two ways:
- By the total value of the acquisition costs (based on the "commodity flow").
- Based on the amount of income received from the fact that the product was sold (based on "revenue stream"). It should be noted that the total calculated by the two methods remains the same.
GDP is one of the important indicators in the modern economic world. Each country calculates this indicator, thereby calculating the place it occupies in the ranking of the most economically successful countries.
Along with GDP, another indicator of GNP is calculated - the gross national product. It includes the total market value of all finished goods and services. The time period for calculating the indicator is one year.
Differences between GDP and GNP are unspeakably small and in absolute terms differ within 2-3%. When calculating GDP, the so-called territorial principle is used, according to which GDP is created only by factors of production internal to a given country.
*Data are given in actual prices, from 2016 - in the price scale effective from July 1, 2016 (10,000 times decrease).
In 2015, Belarus' GDP fell by 3.9% after growing by 1.6% in 2014.
According to the forecast of the socio-economic development of Belarus, in 2016 the republic's GDP was to grow by 0.3%. Despite the forecasts of the government of the country, the republic's GDP went down, at the end of the year it decreased by 2.6% compared to 2015. In 2016, the volume of GDP in current prices amounted to 94,949.0 million rubles (in terms of prices effective from July 1, 2016), or in comparable prices 97.4% of the 2015 level. The GDP deflator index in 2016 compared to the previous year was 107.8%. The main contribution to the negative dynamics of the main macroeconomic indicator was made by the industry - the volume of production decreased by 0.4% over the year. Also, a significant drop in GDP is observed in the construction sector.
The government of Belarus counted on GDP growth and at the end of 2017 on growth of 101.7% compared to 2016. In terms of Belarus's GDP in 2017, it grew by 102.4%.
At the end of 2018, GDP grew by 3%.
The GDP of Belarus in 2019, according to the Ministry of Economy, will amount to 61 billion US dollars.
According to the first assessment for January - November 2019, the volume of GDP in current prices amounted to 120.1 billion rubles, or in comparable prices 101.1% compared to January - November 2018. The GDP deflator index in January-November 2019 compared to the same period of the previous year amounted to 106.5%.
Over the five-year period, the GDP growth rate is projected by the government in the range of 112.1-115%. This indicator is more than twice as high as the last five-year period. Such an indicator is indicated in the resolution of the Council of Ministers “On the implementation of the tasks of the socio-economic development of the Republic of Belarus”, published on the National Legal Internet Portal.
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RUB 121.6 billion
for 2018
The term " gross domestic product", or abbreviated - GDP, has been in use since 1934. It refers to the value of all goods and services produced in a country during one calendar year.
All countries of the world are counting their GDP, and Belarus is no exception. This is the most important indicator of the level of development of the economy, its competitiveness. Observing the dynamics of this parameter, one can draw conclusions about the state of the industry and the state service sector.
GDP of Belarus: what it consists of, who calculates it
The gross domestic product of the Republic of Belarus is calculated both in US dollars and in national currency. It includes the cost of all, without exception, goods produced in our country. The service sector is also analyzed in the most thorough way. In particular, GDP includes services provided by:
- Hi-Tech Park;
- state design organizations;
- consulting, law firms, etc.
The calculation of GDP in Belarus is carried out by specialists from the National Statistical Committee, the Ministry of Economy and other government agencies. In addition, international organizations, for example, the IMF and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, conduct their own independent calculations. They use their own scoring methodologies, which may differ from those used in Belarus.
Because of this, data from international organizations and the Belarusian government sometimes diverge. This is especially true for forecasts of growth or decline in GDP in the short term.
What was the GDP of Belarus in 2017?
According to official data released at the beginning of 2018, in 2017 GDP in Belarus grew by 2.4% - up to 105 billion Bel. rubles in equivalent. This result turned out to be more optimistic than the initial forecast of the Belarusian experts. It was previously thought that last year's GDP would not exceed 1.7 percent.
Interestingly, these data are at odds with the IMF's observations. In October 2017, specialists from the International Monetary Fund published a report according to which the growth of gross domestic product at the end of the year will not exceed 0.7%.
Which result is reliable in the end - 2.4% or 0.7%? It may well be that both are simply based on different calculation methodologies that take into account some factors and do not take into account others.
You can find out what the GDP of Belarus was in 2016 and in other years from the table below.
| year | billion Bel. rub | mln $ equivalent |
| 2018 | 121,6 | |
| 2017 | 105,199 | 48126 |
| 2016 | 94,3 | 48126 |
| 2015 | 869701,7 | 54944,1 |
| 2014 | 778455,5 | 75921,9 |
| 2013 | 649110,7 | 72808,6 |
| 2012 | 530355,5 | 63470,9 |
| 2011 | 297157,7 | 58799 |
| 2010 | 164476,1 | 55086,5 |
| 2009 | 137442,2 | 49193,2 |
| 2008 | 129790,8 | 60797,7 |
| 2007 | 97165,3 | 45267,2 |
| 2006 | 79267 | 36970,6 |
| 2005 | 65067,1 | 30220,2 |
| 2004 | 49992 | 23133,3 |
| 2003 | 36564,8 | 17755,4 |
| 2002 | 26138,3 | 14571,8 |
| 2001 | 17173,2 | 12330,1 |
| 2000 | 9133,8 | 13088,4 |
GDP of Belarus 2018: forecasts for the year
Economists believe that in 2018 the Belarusian economy will continue to gradually recover after a protracted crisis. Rapid growth is not expected, but further deterioration of the situation is also not worth waiting for. Our country is favored by the external situation - the prices for oil and potash fertilizers are growing, the demand for Belarusian engineering products is gradually increasing.
Forecasts on GDP from different experts again diverge. Thus, the government of the Republic of Belarus is confident that this indicator will grow, and by the end of 2018, the gross product will increase by at least 3.5%.
Representatives of the IMF are traditionally more restrained. In their opinion, there will indeed be growth, but it will not exceed 0.8%. Which prediction will eventually come true - time will tell.
Belarus is a country with almost 9.5 million people, a developed industry that was preserved after the collapse of the USSR, and it is also the only country where such a structure as the KGB has been preserved. There is also a personality cult of the local president, whom the Belarusians affectionately call Batka. In this country, the village is being developed, it is bad for currency speculators and small entrepreneurs, but large state-owned enterprises flourish, the streets are very clean and the traffic cop does his job, and does not feed with a stick on the road, like a robber. Roads in Belarus without potholes, how they did it, is the secret of the Old Man.
Let's take a look at Belarus from an economic point of view, namely, we will analyze the size of Belarus' GDP by years and make a forecast of Belarus' GDP for 2017 in national currency and US dollars.
We calculate the size of the GDP of Belarus for 2016
Belarus' GDP in January-November decreased by 2.7% compared to the same period last year, amounting to 85.9 billion rubles in current prices, Belstat reports. According to the results of eleven months, the gap from the level of 2015 was 2.8%.
The volume of industrial production decreased over eleven months by 0.9%, amounting to 71.3 billion rubles. In November, compared to November 2015, the volume of industrial production increased by 5.1%, compared to October of this year - by 1.9%. Agricultural production in January-November increased compared to the same period last year by 3.4% - up to 14.4 billion rubles.
Among the positive trends, he drew attention to the success of the industry, which is reaching positive growth rates with minimal stocks in warehouses, and the good development of agriculture.
As previously reported, the Eurasian Development Bank expects Belarus' GDP to slow down to minus 2.6% in 2016, with a gradual recovery in 2018 to 0.5%. The IMF predicts a decline in Belarus' GDP by 3% in 2016, and by 0.5% in 2017, the World Bank - by 3% and 1%, respectively.
From these data, we can find out the GDP of Belarus in national currency for 2016, for this we take data for 11 months, divide them by 11 and multiply by 12. Thus, we get the GDP of Belarus in national currency for 2016. These are certainly not 100% accurate figures, but very close to the truth. Also, please note that in 2016 there was a denomination of Belarusian rubles - four zeros were removed. Therefore, GDP for 2016 will be given both in old prices and in post-denominated prices.
85,9/11*12=937.091 trillion white rubles(before 2016 denomination)
or
BYN 93.709 billion rubles(after denomination 2016)
According to the IMF, the size of Belarus' GDP in 2016
Rated - $48.126 billion USA
PPP - $167.7 billion USA
We calculate the size of the GDP of Belarus for 2017 in the national currency
To forecast the GDP of Belarus for 2017, we need such indicators as GDP growth, inflation and the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble.
So for the calculations we will take the following data: fall in GDP in 2017 - 0.5%, inflation - 9% , course - 2.165. We are not going to predict the dollar's chickens - for Belarus it is almost unrealistic. The size of inflation is taken from here. The government predicts that next year the dollar will be worth 2.12 - 2.21 Belarusian rubles. At the same time, a gap of 9 kopecks is justified by two different scenarios for the development of events in 2017, so we take the average value 2,165 .
In order to calculate GDP in Belarus for 2017 in its national currency us
GDP of Belarus 2017 in hryvnias = GDP of Belarus 2016 (Belarusian rubles) + (inflation rate 2017 + GDP growth 2017)
We consider: 93.70907 + (-0.5 + 9)% \u003d 93.70907 + 8.5% \u003d 93.70907 + 7.96527 \u003d BYN 101.67434095 billion rubles
GDP of Belarus in US dollars for 2017 (nominal + PPP)
In order to calculate GDP in Belarus for 2017 in US dollars (nominal) you need to apply the following formula:
GDP of Belarus 2017 (nominal) in USD USA = GDP of Belarus 2017 in hryvnia / exchange rate for 2017
We consider: 101.674 / 2.165 = $46.963 billion
In order to calculate GDP in Belarus for 2017 in US dollars (PPP) you need to apply the following formula:
Belarus GDP 2016 (PPP) in USD US = Belarus GDP 2016 (PPP) in USD USA + GDP growth (fall) 2017
We consider: 167.7 - 0.5% = 167.7-0.8385 = $166.8615 billion
GDP of Belarus for 2000 - 2017 (nominal, PPP, Belarusian ruble, dollar)
| year | trillion white rub. | GDP bn $ nominal | GDP billion $ PPP | Growth rate | Inflation, % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 9,134 | 13,088 | 50,8 | 5,8 | 168,6 |
| 2001 | 17,173 | 12,330 | 54,4 | 4,7 | 61,1 |
| 2002 | 26,138 | 14,572 | 58,1 | 5,0 | 42,6 |
| 2003 | 36,565 | 17,755 | 63,5 | 7,0 | 28,4 |
| 2004 | 49,992 | 23,133 | 71,3 | 11,5 | 18,1 |
| 2005 | 65,067 | 30,220 | 83,5 | 9,4 | 10,3 |
| 2006 | 79,267 | 36,971 | 94,8 | 10,0 | 7,0 |
| 2007 | 97,165 | 45,267 | 106,0 | 8,6 | 8,4 |
| 2008 | 129,791 | 60,798 | 119,4 | 10,2 | 14,8 |
| 2009 | 137,442 | 49,193 | 120,9 | 0,2 | 13,0 |
| 2010 | 164,476 | 55,087 | 131,5 | 7,7 | 7,8 |
| 2011 | 297,158 | 58,799 | 140,9 | 5,5 | 53,3 |
| 2012 | 530,356 | 63,471 | 150,3 | 1,7 | 59,1 |
| 2013 | 649,111 | 72,809 | 150,4 | 1,0 | 18,3 |
| 2014 | 778,456 | 75,922 | 171,2 | 1,6 | 18,3 |
| 2015 | 869,702 | 54,944 | 168,2 | -3,6 | 15,0 |
| 2016 | 937,091 | 48,126 | 167,7 | -3,0 | 11,0 |
| 2017 (forecast) | 1016,743 | 46,963 | 166,9 | -0,5 | 9,0 |
| 2017 (wiki) | 53 | 176 | 1,7 |
More details and picture
The Belarusian model of socio-economic development is based on the active participation of the state not only in the management of market relations, but also in the participation of the state in these relations as the largest market player - about 70% of GDP is formed by enterprises with state ownership. Belarus has been demonstrating sustainable economic growth for many years. Over the past ten years, the country's GDP has almost doubled. Annual GDP growth in Belarus averages about 8 percent. More than half of all products manufactured in Belarus are exported. In terms of the ratio of foreign trade to GDP, Belarus is among the top ten European countries. Nevertheless, it is worth noting the fact that the main sources of Belarus' GDP are the active use of production capacities inherited from the USSR and the high share of raw materials in total exports. Economic growth is not accompanied by the use of new technologies, market innovations or increased competitiveness of goods. However, most of the production facilities inherited from the USSR are already worn out and in need of serious modernization. In this regard, today attracting foreign direct investment is the most important task for the Republic of Belarus.
Sectoral structure. Traditionally, there are three sectors in national economies: 1) the agricultural sector, 2) the industrial sector, 3) the service sector. For information, in middle-income countries: 2% - agricultural sector. 35% - the industrial sector and 54% - the service sector.
The following GDP structure can be traced in the Republic of Belarus: 13% of GDP is formed in the agricultural sector, 42% of GDP - in the industrial sector and 45% of GDP - in the service sector (according to the NSDS of the Republic of Belarus until 2020, it is predicted to carry out a structural transformation of the national economy of the Republic of Belarus in the following direction : 7% of GDP should be formed in the agricultural sector, 28% of GDP - in the industrial sector and 65% of GDP should be created in the service sector, taking into account the growth in production in all sectors of the national economy).
It turns out interesting. Judging by these data, Belarus is not at all an "agrarian country", as some believe, and not even primarily an industrial one, but a service one: the expected contribution of the service sector this year is 38% of the total gross domestic product.
That is, the structure of the economy of Belarus is slowly but surely moving towards the structures of the economies of developed countries, that is, to the stage of post-industrial development. That is, the share of agriculture and industry is gradually declining, while the service sector is gradually increasing.
TOP-10 largest enterprises in Belarus in terms of output
1. OJSC "Naftan"(Br 13 trillion)
2. OJSC Mozyr Oil Refinery(Br 11.5 trillion)
3. RUP "Production Association "Belaruskali"(Br 3.5 trillion)
4. RUP "Belarusian Metallurgical Plant"(Br 3 trillion)
5. RUP "Minsk Tractor Plant"(Br 2.5 trillion)
6. OJSC "Minsk Automobile Plant"(Br 2 trillion)
7. RUP "PO "Belorusneft"(Br 1.5 trillion)
8. ZAO "Atlant"(Br 1.3 trillion)
9. RUP "Gomselmash"(Br 1 trillion)
10. RUPP "Belarusian Automobile Plant"(Br1 trillion)
As the figures show, Belarus remains a country whose economy depends on a narrow group of enterprises. Their financial indicators will worsen - the wealth of hundreds of thousands of citizens will fall. Economic growth in the country, as it was many years ago, is ensured mainly by gross-grossing enterprises. The share of such enterprises still accounts for more than half of industrial production (54.8% of the total volume of manufactured products).
The main sectors of the economy are mechanical engineering, chemical and petrochemical industries, the fuel and energy sector, the agro-industrial complex, the timber industry and woodworking, etc. In 2012, industrial output increased by 11% compared to 2011. The highest growth rates of industrial production were observed in the fuel industry (11.1%), machine building and metalworking (10.2%), building materials industry (10.2%).
The fuel and energy complex of Belarus includes systems for the extraction, transportation, storage and production of all types of energy carriers. Belarus imports about 85 percent of the energy resources involved in the country's economy.
At the end of 2012, the share of agricultural production amounted to more than 8 percent of GDP. The volume of production in the industry in 2011 compared to 2010 increased by almost 9 percent.
The construction complex in the structure of gross domestic product took a little less than 10 percent. The industrial core of the complex is formed by enterprises for the production of building materials.
The light industry of Belarus is represented by more than 300 enterprises, which in 2012 produced more than 3 percent of the total industrial output.
The transport industry in Belarus is characterized by a developed infrastructure and a steady growth in freight traffic.
The timber industry of Belarus has over 2.8 thousand woodworking enterprises. In 2012, the total output of forestry, woodworking and pulp and paper industry organizations in Belarus increased by 8.6 percent, while exports increased by 7 percent.
Belarus has a developed banking sector. More than 25 banks operate in the country, of which more than 20 are with foreign capital, including 7 banks with 100% foreign capital. In addition, there are 8 representative offices of foreign banks in Belarus.
Foreign trade The economy of Belarus is export-oriented. At the end of 2012, the trade turnover of Belarus amounted to more than 72 billion dollars and increased by more than 36 percent compared to 2011. The export of Belarus amounted to almost 33 billion dollars and exceeded the figure of 2011 by more than 35 percent.
Thus, a positive impact on the rate of real GNP was exerted by an increase in growth rates in the sectors: construction, agriculture, banking, and communications.
The objective factors hindering economic growth in the Republic of Belarus are: - limited raw materials and fuel and energy base; high resource intensity of the economy; strong dependence on the supply of raw materials, materials, fuel, components from Russia and other CIS countries; underdeveloped market infrastructure.